marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
1235 am PST sun 22 Nov 2009
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
06z NCEP prelim surface analysis shows a 987 mb low in the se WA
waters with its warm front extending N from its center across
the ern WA waters...while its cold front trails S then SW across
the or and NW nrn CA waters. 0250z qscat pass indicated gales in
the pz5 waters with an area of storm force winds just W of the
or waters. A subsequent asct pass from a little over 2 hrs later
at 505z indicated area of 45 kt winds in the far SW...far NW WA
and or waters respectively.
Winds ease thru the day today across the pz5...N CA waters as
the low and its front push inland with high pres ridging moving
overhead. Models have good agreement on bringing next frontal
system into the pz5 waters late tonight into Mon with
pre-frontal gales ahead of it...especially over the WA waters.
So will increase confdc level to hi there and upgrade level in
the or waters to MDT to hi confdc. Another brief decrease in
winds occurs late Mon into early Tue as yet another ridge moves
overhead. Next frontal system impacts waters Tue into Wed and
will be somewhat slow to move into the pz5 waters with decent
model agreement on this scenario. Another risk of pre-frontal
gales exists in the WA waters per the 00z GFS/CMC which have
been consistent on this scenario so will continue with MDT
confdc level here. By periods end high pres ridging lays across
the entire offshore waters with good model support considering
its day 5...so see no reason to adjust current 10-20 kt wind
range thats been in the previous two forecasts.
Seas...00z ww3 was within 1-2 ft when compared to available 00z
ship/buoy obs and again when the 6hr 06z forecast was compared
to 06z obs. Therefore will generally follow model thru the
forecast period.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS
12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale today...hi confdc. Gale
tonight into Mon...hi confdc. Gale Tue into Wed...MDT confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale today...hi confdc. Gale
tonight into Mon...MDT to hi confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
